Funded by the Calleva Research Centre for Evolution and Human Science at Magdalen College, Oxford – with additional support from The British Academy and the Airey Neave Trust – our lab group is now also investigating the role of the fusion-plus-threat model in explaining the seemingly irrational behaviours of heads of state who engage in extreme forms of violence against their own populations or go to war when the costs seem to outweigh the benefits. For example, prior to the visible changes in Russia’s military activities in 2021, most experts would have considered a Kremlin-led aggression war in Ukraine an unlikely scenario. Like Vladimir Putin, the willingness of many leaders to translate hawkish words into action has proven hard to predict. How seriously should we take Kim Jong-un’s aggressive threats? How dangerous are countries led by ideologically extreme figures such as Iran under Ebrahim Raisi or Afghanistan under the Taliban? What about Erdogan or Min Aung HIaing who both have a history of violence against their own populations? And most importantly, might there be an underestimated threat emerging in countries that are currently not on the radar of the diplomatic, defence and intelligence communities?
